Statistical inferences in phylogeography

In conventional phylogeographic studies, historical demographic processes are elucidated from the geographical distribution of individuals represented on an inferred gene tree. However, the interpretation of gene trees in this context can be difficult as the same demographic/geographical process can randomly lead to multiple different genealogies. Likewise, the same gene trees can arise under different demographic models. This problem has led to the emergence of many statistical methods for making phylogeographic inferences. A popular phylogeographic approach based on nested clade analysis is challenged by the fact that a certain amount of the interpretation of the data is left to the subjective choices of the user, and it has been argued that the method performs poorly in simulation studies. More rigorous statistical methods based on coalescence theory have been developed. However, these methods may also be challenged by computational problems or poor model choice. In this review, we will describe the development of statistical methods in phylogeographic analysis, and discuss some of the challenges facing these methods.

The phylogeography of salmonid proliferative kidney disease in Europe and North America

Salmonid proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is caused by the myxozoan Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae. Given the serious and apparently growing impact of PKD on farmed and wild salmonids, we undertook a phylogeographic study to gain insights into the history of genealogical lineages of T. bryosalmonae in Europe and North America, and to determine if the global expansion of rainbow trout farming has spread the disease. Phylogenetic analyses of internal transcribed spacer 1 sequences revealed a clade composed of all North American sequences plus a subset of Italian and French sequences. High genetic diversity in North America and the absence of genotypes diagnostic of the North American clade in the rest of Europe imply that southern Europe was colonized by immigration from North America; however, sequence divergence suggests that this colonization substantially pre-dated fisheries activities. Furthermore, the lack of southern European lineages in the rest of Europe, despite widespread rainbow trout farming, indicates that T. bryosalmonae is not transported through fisheries activities. This result strikingly contrasts with the commonness of fisheries-related introductions of other pathogens and parasites and indicates that fishes may be dead-end hosts. Our results also demonstrate that European strains of T. bryosalmonae infect and induce PKD in rainbow trout introduced to Europe.

Cultural phylogeography of the Bantu Languages of sub-Saharan Africa

There is disagreement about the routes taken by populations speaking Bantu languages as they expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we build phylogenetic trees of Bantu languages and map them onto geographical space in order to assess the likely pathway of expansion and test between dispersal scenarios. The results clearly support a scenario in which groups first moved south through the rainforest from a homeland somewhere near the Nigeria–Cameroon border. Emerging on the south side of the rainforest, one branch moved south and west. Another branch moved towards the Great Lakes, eventually giving rise to the monophyletic clade of East Bantu languages that inhabit East and Southeastern Africa. These phylogenies also reveal information about more general processes involved in the diversification of human populations into distinct ethnolinguistic groups. Our study reveals that Bantu languages show a latitudinal gradient in covering greater areas with increasing distance from the equator. Analyses suggest that this pattern reflects a true ecological relationship rather than merely being an artefact of shared history. The study shows how a phylogeographic approach can address questions relating to the specific histories of certain groups, as well as general cultural evolutionary processes.

Population genetic diversity of the endemic Sardinian newt Euproctus platycephalus: implications for conservation

The Sardinian mountain newt Euproctus platycephalus, endemic to the island of Sardinia, (Italy), is considered a rare and threatened species and is classed as critically endangered by IUCN. It inhabits streams, small lakes and pools on the main mountain systems of the island. Threats from climatic and anthropogenic factors have raised concerns for the long-term survival of newt populations on the island. MtDNA sequencing was used to investigate the genetic population structure and phylogeography of this endemic species. Patterns of genetic variation were assessed by sequencing the complete Dloop region and part of the 12SrRNA, from 74 individuals representing four different populations. Analyses of molecular variance suggest that populations are significantly differentiated, and the distribution of haplotypes across the island shows strong geographical structuring. However, phylogenetic analyses also suggest that the Sardinian population consists of two distinct mtDNA groups, which may reflect ancient isolation and expansion events. Population structure, evolutionary history of the species and implications for the conservation of newt populations are discussed.

Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results: Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion: The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.